Luxury Automaking Marke: Oct 2025 Research Pack

Overview

• Demand resilience at the top end: Mercedes-Benz reports Top-End model sales +10% YoY in Q3 2025 (now 15% of car mix), underscoring sustained luxury appetite even as broader volumes softened.
• Europe stabilizes with electrification momentum: EU new-car registrations +0.9% YTD (Jan–Sep 2025); BEV share 16.1% YT.
• U.S. demand firm in Q3: U.S. new-vehicle sales projected ~+6% YoY in Q3 2025 to ~4.14M units, aided by EV pull‑forward.

Market Size & Growth

• Pricing power at a record: U.S. average transaction price hit $50,080 in September (reported Oct), setting an all‑time high despite higher incentives.
• EV scale-up in the quarter: 437,487 EVs sold in Q3 2025; EVs reached 10.5% U.S. market share as buyers rushed to beat incentive changes.
• Premium electrification within luxury: Porsche deliveries 212,509 (Jan–Sep 2025) with 35.2% electrified mix (BEV 23.1%, PHEV 12.1%).

Key Growth Drivers

• Policy-driven pull‑forward: Expiration of U.S. EV incentives at end‑Sept spurred a late‑Q3 surge in EV purchases, lifting overall Q3 volumes.
• Supply normalization at scale players: VW Group says it is OK on chip supply despite Nexperia issues—reducing near‑term production risk for brands like Audi, Porsche, Lamborghini.
• Consumer barbell effect supports luxury: U.S. market remains bifurcated—premium new‑car buyers continue spending while value seekers fuel used sales; premium mix helps sustain high ATPs.

M&A Overview

• Strategic options within VW Group’s design ecosystem: Italdesign CEO says parent Volkswagen may decide the unit’s future by year‑end 2025 (potential portfolio action relevant to luxury/performance pipelines).
• Internal consolidation at Porsche (digital/engineering): Porsche is evaluating combining Porsche Engineering and Porsche Digital to consolidate competencies (organizational realignment supporting product & software roadmaps).
• Capital allocation under pressure at Aston Martin: Company to cut development spend by £300m amid tariffs and China softness; reassessing product plans—implications for future partnerships/capital needs.

AI’s Role

• Mercedes MO360 + LLM suite: Integration of MO360LLM and factory chatbots; humanoid robots piloted with Apptronik—AI deployed across digital factory for productivity and quality.
• BMW AIQX and AI quality control: AIQX automates inline quality checks; broader AI used as a “quality booster” across assembly.
• Porsche ML for high‑voltage systems: Machine‑learning–driven data analysis improves reliability/performance of Macan Electric high‑voltage components.

Competitive Landscape

• BMW momentum in the U.S.: Q3 2025 BMW sales +24% YoY; 275,385 vehicles sold YTD through Sept (+8.5%).
• Porsche regional divergence: 9‑month global sales impacted by China −26%, while North America +4.7%—a key mix signal for luxury allocation.
• BMW Group global growth: Q3 deliveries +8.8%; ~1.8M deliveries Jan–Sep; 323,447 BEVs (+10%)—scale advantages across luxury segments.

Sources

ACEA (EU registrations & fuel mix (Oct 28, 2025), ACEA PDF, BMW Group Global (Q3 press, BMW Global PDF (Q3 press), BMW USA (Q3 results), Mercedes-Benz Interim Report Q3 2025 (PDF), Mercedes-Benz Q3 2025 Capital Markets Presentation (PDF), Mercedes MO360 + LLM (AI in factory), Porsche deliveries (Oct 9, 2025), Porsche ML for high-voltage, Porsche consolidation note (Sep 30, 2025), Reuters (U.S. auto Q3 +6%), Reuters (VW chip supply OK), Reuters (Italdesign unit future), Reuters (Porsche regional mix), Reuters (Aston Martin capex cut), Kelley Blue Book (ATP record context), Kelley Blue Book (EV sales/EV share Q3), WardsAuto (bifurcated market)

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